4 Scenarios for the future of pandemics and epidemics in the next 3-5 years

A WHO Foresight Initiative

In July 2021, WHO and partners embarked on a journey to explore the future of pandemics and epidemics. Four scenarios were developed as an invitation to strategic dialogue for improved pandemic preparedness. Scenarios are evidence-based, plausible stories of the future. They are not predictions, but narratives on how the future could turn out considering the interplay of key factors or critical uncertainties. Each scenario should be considered as highly plausible. No probabilities are attached to the scenarios as each should be considered equally in terms of likelihood.

Scenarios are named after famous songs to trigger creativity.

Four plausible scenarios for the future of pandemics and epidemics in the next 3-5 years

(long video)

Scenario 1 – Happy Days

It is the year 2026. Six years have passed since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and the world is now in a better place. Through collaboration, focus, determination, community empowerment, and hard work, humanity managed to get on top of the pandemic and by doing so, yielded benefits for people and the planet.

(video about this scenario)

Scenario 2 – I Love you, I Hate You

Six years after the COVID-19 outbreak, the virus, through multiple mutations and unpredictable, uncontrolled outbreaks, manages to persist and become part of our lives. Humanity keeps up, but the long-lasting impacts of the pandemic on health care systems, economies and the environment start becoming increasingly visible across the world.

(video about this scenario)

Scenario 3 – Heartbreak Hotel

The virus has evolved to become even more infectious. Nations across the world react in different ways, and the lack of a global, unified front against the pandemic results in a two-speed world characterized by increasing socioeconomic, technological, environmental and political disparities.

(video about this scenario)

Scenario 4 – Here Comes Trouble

In addition to a worsening COVID-19 pandemic, a new pandemic emerges. Nations are unable to handle the additional burden of a double pandemic. Public health measures are contradictory, national economies collapse, ecosystem degradation accelerates, extreme weather events are frequent and intense. Humanity is exhausted and struggles to manage.

(video about this scenario)

To find out more, read the report here.